Trump, Putin, and the ceasefire illusion
There was a lot of uncertainty about what Trump would do with respect to Ukraine when he came to power. Some thought that he really wanted a win and so would ultimately be tough on Putin, despite rhetoric that suggested otherwise. Other people predicted that he would push for Ukraine to capitulate to Russia’s maximalist demands, either because he’s pro-Putin (and pro-dictator more generally) or because he really does want to end the war quickly and pushing Ukraine to capitulate seems easier than trying to get Putin to negotiate.
It’s clear now that the second camp was wiser. The Trump administration has mostly parroted Russian narratives, blaming Ukraine and the West for the war, claiming Zelensky doesn’t want peace, etc. Among other things, its pushed major concessions to Russia even before any negotiations, demanded nothing of Putin, sidelined European allies, and cut off previously promised military aid and intelligence-sharing (seemingly temporarily, but we’ll see), which has helped Russia kill more Ukrainians.
Fast-forward to the ceasefire proposal. Ukraine agreed to a mutual 30-day ceasefire, which Cambridge dictionary defines as “an agreement, usually between two armies, to stop fighting in order to allow discussions about peace”, which put the ball in Russia’s court. Russia has rejected the proposed ceasefire and wants something with strings attached, a.k.a. concessions to Russia. Which, of course, goes against the definition of a ceasefire.
More broadly, Putin doesn’t want peace (if he did, he could just leave Ukrainian territory). Putin wants total Ukrainian capitulation, and agreeing to an unconditional ceasefire doesn’t help advance that goal. Pretty much no one who understands the situation expected Russia to agree to the ceasefire because:
1. Now that Trump has made it very clear whose side he’s on, Putin thinks he might be able to get everything he wants and not face any consequences for making no concessions. Ongoing Western hesitation to confront Russia has been a major contributor to Russia continuing this war more generally, but now that the Trump administration has come out as pro-Russia, Putin is less likely than ever to back down voluntarily.
2. Even if Putin can’t get everything he wants before a ceasefire, he sees this as an opportunity to weaken Ukraine further by demanding that Ukraine receive no military materiel delivery or conduct any military training during the ceasefire (note that he’s not proposing similar conditions for Russia).
3. Soldier lives are not worth much to Putin. He’s already likely lost most of his best soldiers and doesn’t care about preserving cannon fodder. In fact, Putin is afraid of his veterans coming back home and so it would be convenient if fewer of them did so.
4. Putin has framed this as an existential war against the West to his population, and many Russians believe this. They seem to have forgotten that Ukraine was showing no aggression toward Russia, that Russia is invading Ukrainian territory, that NATO is a defensive alliance, that Ukraine was nowhere near joining NATO, etc. The domestic narrative Putin has pushed makes it very difficult for him to back down without looking weak, which could embolden someone in his inner circle to try to overthrow him. (The last sentence is a bit of speculation on my part, but the fact is that Putin has never indicated a willingness to compromise on his maximalist demands.)
Putin’s maximalist demands involve Russian subjugation of Ukraine. They also include Ukraine giving up territory that Russia currently does not control and holding elections during wartime, which is not only against Ukraine’s constitution but also logistically infeasible (think of the millions of displaced Ukrainians in Europe and those living in occupied territories). I suspect Trump understands what a non-starter these demands are and plans to use Ukraine’s resistance as “proof” that Ukraine is the bad guy.
At this point, it’s also possible that Trump is trying to set up conditions to help Russia take more territory. If so, he will agree to suspend US military aid delivery and intelligence-sharing with Ukraine during a “ceasefire” while Russia rebuilds and gets ready for a new offensive. I suspect it will still be very hard for Russia to achieve significant gains because (a) the land that Russia claims but does not control is vase and has a lot of people living on it and (b) Russia’s advances have been incredibly slow for at least the past year.
Despite how bleak things may look, there’s still value in calling your members of Congress to protest Trump’s capitulation to Russia and in putting pressure on Europe to step up and fight for democracy. Russia is weak, both economically and militarily, and continued pressure could well cause it to crumble. Many dictatorships look hopelessly entrenched until one day they’re not.
Just as importantly, we need to continue promoting the correct narrative and fighting pervasive Russian disinformation.
Originally published at https://ukraineinsights.substack.com.
